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In the face of the global financial crisis the Belarusian banking system remains stable, Felix Chernyavsky, President of the Association of Belarusian Banks, said at the Belarusian finance and investment forum in Minsk on October 22.
In his words, the immaturity of the Belarusian stock market led to almost no drain of short-term capital. The drain approaches only $461 million. This is the money some foreign companies took as loans from Belarusian banks in view of the crisis on foreign markets. State reserves stored by the National Bank have also shrank insignificantly — around $400 million down to over $3.5 billion at present.
According to Felix Chernyavsky, the global crisis can still deliver indirect impact on the Belarusian banking industry if Belarus’ main trade partners demonstrate recession or production downturn trends. The Belarusian economy is export-oriented and the possible decrease in the Belarusian export may influence the credit portfolio of Belarusian banks in the form of overdue liabilities of exporters. On the whole, the Belarusian banking system is stable, with no withdrawal of individuals’ deposits.
According to the expert, the ruble sector is fine now. The volume of ruble resources is sufficient to keep them liquid. The interbank rate stays at a steady 11.2%. Resources on the foreign currency market have become more expensive following an increase in costs of borrowed foreign resources — higher Libor and fees for attracting foreign investments.
The share of foreign resources in passive assets of Belarus is small. As of October 1, 2008 it stood at 11.8% of the resource base without attracted FDI, while for instance in Kazakhstan borrowed resources account for 50%. Since spring Kazakhstan banks started experiencing liquidity problems, remarked Felix Chernyavsky.
He reminded, in order to maintain the stability of the Belarusian banking system, a presidential decree meant to guarantee deposits is being developed and Russia is expected to allocate a $2 billion stabilisation loan to support the balance of payment. The National Bank and the Belarusian government have requested the International Monetary Fund to allocate a $2 stand-by facility. According to Felix Chernyavsky, the measures will enable stable operation of the banking system in the future.
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